A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
